Pentagon hands AI minerals program to private sector to counter China’s market grip

The Pentagon’s new AI program for critical minerals is being transferred to the private sector as part of a strategy to counter China’s dominance in the raw materials essential for modern technology. This public-private collaboration represents a significant shift in how the U.S. approaches mineral supply chain security, leveraging artificial intelligence to predict prices and supplies while building a coalition of manufacturers and mining companies to reduce dependence on Chinese sources.

The big picture: The U.S. Department of Defense has handed control of its critical minerals AI program to a non-profit organization that will facilitate supply deals between miners and manufacturers.

• The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI metals program, launched in late 2023, is now managed by the Critical Minerals Forum (CMF) with over 30 members including Volkswagen.
• This transition marks a strategic effort to counter China’s control over critical minerals markets through private-sector collaboration and AI-powered market intelligence.

Key details: The AI model calculates metal costs by analyzing factors including labor, processing expenses, and Chinese market manipulation tactics.

• The program specifically targets lightly traded metals and those susceptible to price manipulation, providing insight beyond conventional market data.
• It’s being trained on more than 70 mining-related data sets and aims to guide investment decisions for at least 15 years by simulating potential market disruptions.

Why this matters: Beijing has been restricting exports of critical minerals, increasing urgency for Western nations to develop alternative supply chains.

• Critical minerals are essential components in everything from electric vehicles to defense systems, making their supply a matter of both economic and national security.
• The initiative represents a novel approach to resource security by combining government research, private industry participation, and artificial intelligence technology.

Looking ahead: The Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will continue funding the program through at least 2029.

• DARPA plans to transfer the AI model’s intellectual property to the Critical Minerals Forum by early 2027, completing the transition to private-sector management.
• The success of this public-private partnership could establish a template for addressing other supply chain vulnerabilities in strategic industries.